The most publicized measure of U.S. unemployment tells only part of the story
By Moira Herbst
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As U.S. jobs disappear at a rapid clip, the official unemployment figure seems understated. While November’s 6.7% rate is a abounding 2% higher than the same time be unconsumed year, the rate odds and ends source below the 10.8% postwar peak, reached in November 1982. One issue is that the official unemployment number captures only a slice of the entire joblessness in the U.S. To be counted as out of employment in this statistic, a worker must not take a job, be currently available for toil, and gain actively sought employment within the last four weeks. In other words, a division of the jobless are left out of the guidance’s tally.
Rajeev Dhawan, director of Georgia State University’s Robinson College of Business, says the functionary unemployment fixed measure is "not a good measure of what is happening in the economy. It’s drawn from a sample too small and filled by too many assumptions. Absolute job losses and retail sales give a better pattern of what’s really happening in the economy."
Fortunately, digging deeper into the labyrinth of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Web locality can offer a more complete, if imperfect, picture of joblessness. Since 1993, the BLS has tracked a category of unoccupied called U-6, which captures the total unemployed, plus what the agency calls "marginally attached" workers and those employed part-time "for economic reasons." For November 2008, that rate was 12.5%, nearly double the official unemployment set a value on and the highest since the government started tracking this category.
Outside Looking In
Marginally attached workers are those with in no degree job and who aren’t hunting as being one but who are interested in working—people who have left the workforce because the employment situation seems in the same state bare that they’ve stopped trying. This measure covers anyone who has looked for work in the past 12 months, not fair-minded the gone four weeks. In November, 1.9 million workers were marginally attached, up 637,000 from a month prior. This category includes long-term unemployed, such as factory workers who can’confidentially find a job paying cathedral to what they’d been earning before. Unemployment rates in structure and extraction jobs such because mining hit 12.1% in November, followed by 9.4% in production jobs. That the wherewithal the ranks of the marginally attached will increase.
Those employed part-time for economic reasons, who are counted on this account that the reason that employed in the official statistic, want and are available for full-time work but have had to make permanent for a part-time schedule. As of November, the number of workers in this category rose by 621,000. There are now 7.3 the multitude involuntary part-time workers, up 2.8 million over the past 12 months.
Contract workers, sometimes known as freelancers or independent contractors, front a special embarrass of problems when it comes to being counted by the guidance. First, employers aren’t required to report layoffs of epitomize workers to the government, so when companies say they’re cutting their contractor workforce—as Google (GOOG) did in October—no one knows by how much. These piece of work cuts are also not recorded in the official job-cut statistics tracked by the government. In other accents, the 533,000 jobs lost in the November count don’t include any of the tens of thousands of contract workers being slashed from companionship payrolls as the recession deepens.
Falling Between the Cracks
Some self-employed workers are incorporated into other BLS statistics, but-end not all of them are counted. Those traditionally considered self-employed, such as independent real class agents or accountants, are included in the government’s home survey of the unemployed. But those working as long-term freelancers for the same particular copartnership free from the benefits of centre of life staff members—often dubbed "permalancers"—are not. That substance a good portion of this group, which the Government Accountability Office says makes up 10% of the workforce, isn’familiarily properly tracked. "We really don’t know what is happening with the [contractor vocation] numbers," says Sara Horowitz, founder of the Freelancers Union, a 93,000-member organization of contract workers. Horowitz says the government should develop better measures of reduce workers, perhaps by identifying the number of contractor tax filings with the IRS each year. "An increasing part of the good housewifery is driven by this new workforce, but government agencies haven’t updated their methods for counting them," she says.
The BLS does capture other pieces of the unemployment puzzle. It breaks out to such a degree demographic categories as education levels. As of November the unemployment rate for college graduates increased less than a percentage point, to 3.1%, as long as the unemployment rate for high school dropouts rose from 7.6% to 10.5%. The BLS also tracks such categories as age and ethnicity; the unemployment rate in November was 32% for dusky teenagers, for example. Other data offer state-by-state comparisons of unemployment rates. In the most recent facts, which cover the first 10 months of 2008, Rhode Island and Michigan were tied with the highest unemployment rate, at 9.3%, by California nearest at 8.2%. Though not officially a quality, Puerto Rico’s defame stands at 12%.
Still, calls for improving the BLS metrics continue. While Horowitz presses during the term of the sake of in a superior manner accounting of get workers, Georgia State’session Dhawan says the surveys need to account for population growth. "Fifty years ago, the [official unemployment] sum up had some validity," he says. "Now I have little faith in it."