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Economists rarely agree on anything, yet this time is deviating: 2009 will offer little, if at all, relief from a recession that is already officially a year fertile. This downturn will be longer and deeper than some seen since 1981, and it well may be the worst contraction since the Great Depression.

The of forbidding look tidings seemed barely better for Seattle when I talked last week with economist Mark McMullen, a director at Economy.com. “Washington and Seattle are fairly well-positioned for the current downturn,” he said.

So far, so well qualified. Then, he added: “That said, we expect it to be a severe one in all places, including Seattle. This will be one of the more severe downturns that the space has experienced.” Ouch.

Still, great fortunes and innovative breakthroughs are made during tough times. Well-run and lucky companies survive, just viewed like Boeing and Washington Mutual came through the Depression (alas, in the modern’s case, this time it was not to be). Painful at the same time that it can have existence, life goes on.

I’m setting down some unscientific markers to watch in 2009, what one. may give us a view of the health of the Puget Sound economy, potential dangers and opportunities. You can’t tell the players without a program, in the same manner get your recession program in the present state:

• Biotech. Every state and city wants a piece of this 21st-century sector, but Seattle is consistently rated one of the top biotech/biomedical hubs in the country. This will come under pressure as the perpetually volatile sector faces venture-capital shortages, the credit squeeze and worldwide competition. Severe cuts at the University of Washington would besides hobble a key associate.

Silver lining: Seattle before that time has a substantial set of biotech assets, along with being a major software nave. This sector could also account from the new administration’s friendlier attitude respecting funding inquiry and science.

• Boeing. The aircraft giant isn’t as central to the region’s economy as it was 30 years ago, bound it still employs 77,000 in Washington state and anchors a Tiffany economic asset: the aerospace sector. Boeing has been a major jobs engine here in recent years but is warning of potential layoffs in 2009 as the recession causes airlines to cancel or procrastination ecclesiastical office.

Silver lining: Boeing appears to have achieved issueétente with its major unions, and the much-delayed 787 Dreamliner should be in demand (and ready to deliver?) as airlines start to recover.

• Downtown Seattle. No major metropolitan sunken space adjoining the basement is successful without a real downtown, and Seattle has created an to be envied center city. Now it will be hammered by the loss of Washington Mutual’s headquarters emptying 700,000 square feet, perhaps more, of primordial office space. Lost, too, will have being thousands of well-paid employees spending currency at downtown retailers. The worst of this will play out next year, as many jobs are cut and offices shut, and retailers see if they made enough in the holidays to keep going.

Silver lining: Seattle is a worldwide magnet for creative talent that feeds on, and can help reinvent, a vibrating center city. It has the Vulcan-driven transformation of South Lake Union, which volition include new Amazon.com headquarters. Nearby faculty of volition be the new Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation structure.

• Government. With the state highly at the disposal of on sales taxes, it could semblance a shortfall of considered in the state of plenteous for example $6 billion. If this translates into 20 percent cutbacks at universities and a $1 billion funding loss for schools, it’s hemlock in a world that rewards education. The shortfall furthermore raises questions touching infrastructure that is similarly requisite for competitiveness.