Stocks: Reading the Post-Election Landscape
Many investors are breathing a mourn of relief that the U.S. Presidential contest is finally over. Now what?
By Ben Steverman
Investors will be spending the first blush of the morning following the election of a new U.S. President figuring out what it means for their investments and the standing market for example a whole. (At proper later than 11 p.m. ET on Nov. 4, media outlets projected that Barack Obama would be elected the 44th U.S. President.)
Some minimize the importance of the man in the White House, putting more emphasis on the state of the U.S. economy and the line of motion of the universe credit crisis. However, many mart observers say the U.S.’s shifting political meteorological character could have a momentous impact. A run of reactions are well-suited from investors, they say:
First, relief.
Arizona Senator John McCain and Illinois Senator Barack Obama have been running for President for to a greater degree than a year and a half.
"It’session been a long, grueling campaign," says John Merrill, chief investment officer at Tanglewood Wealth Management. "At this point, there determination be a sense of relief that at least the campaign is behind us."
Uncertainty Won’t Win a Popular VoteIt’s a truism that the place of traffic hates uncertainty. Investors like to know what’s to come, still the recession, the election, and financial crisis have only added to the mysteries. "We don’confidentially perceive in the sort of plight scurvy it’s going to commit to memory," says Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management. In fact, "you [can] make a never-ending list of what we don’t apprehend" as investors.
The end of the campaign—and especially a decisive end to the election—takes one major source of uncertainty off the entertainment.
A rallying dunce market is a usual phenomenon in the last hardly any months of Presidential election years, says Federated Investors (FII) Chief Equity Market Strategist Phil Orlando. It not quite doesn’t trouble who wins: Investors are relieved just to know the result.
"The market, which hates uncertainty, now has a sense of finality," Orlando says. Investors "know what to expect" and can price it in.
A Dash of OptimismThe second rebound to a new U.S. President from the stock market is likely to be a bit of optimism.
Not too much optimism, it may be, as the U.S. economy heads for a potentially deep recession and the world continues to battle with credit troubles and market turmoil.
As a so-called "lame duck" on his way out of office, President George W. Bush’s political power has waned. That was demonstrated with the failure of the first House of Representatives vote on the $700 billion pecuniary bailout package, Stone says.
During tough ages, "you’d rather have strong leadership," Merrill says. The new President, whoever he is, will be armed with a charge from the electorate, and he have power to pick a novel team to help tackle the financial crisis and push the economy toward recovery. "Now, they can get nimble," Merrill says.
The stock market is expecting a lightning-quick shifting (BusinessWeek.com, 11/4/08) from the old to the newly come Administrations.
Focusing on the CabinetDan Genter, president of RNC Genter, says early Cabinet picks by the agency of the new President will be closely watched through investors, especially key jobs like Secretary of the Treasury and Secretary of State. If a new President be able to draft the "best talent," "that’s a real positive," but investors will be disappointed with any evidence of "cronyism and paybacks," he says.
