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I’ve always been dubious about Barack Obama’s offer to negotiate with Iran — not because I didn’t convinced that it was the right strategy, but because I didn’t believe we had enough leverage to succeed. And negotiating in the Middle East without leverage is in the manner of playing baseball without a bat.
Well, suppose that Obama does win the presidency, my gut tells me that he’sitting going to get a hap to negotiate through the Iranians — with a bat in his hand.
Have you seen the reports that Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is suffering from exhaustion? It’s probably because he is not sleeping at obscurity. I apprehend why. Watching oil prices emptying from $147 a barrel to $57 is not of a piece counting sheep. It’s the kind of thing that gives an Iranian absolute ruler bad dreams.
After all, it was the collapse of global oil prices in the early 1990s that brought down the Soviet Union. And Iran today is looking very Soviet to me.
As Vladimir Mau, president of Russia’s Academy of National Economy, pointed out to me, it was the long determination of high oil prices followed by sharply lower oil prices that killed the Soviet Union. The spike in oil prices in the 1970s deluded the Kremlin into overextending subsidies at home-born and invading Afghanistan abroad — and for this reason the collapse in prices in the ’80s helped bring down that overextended empire.
(Incidentally, this was exactly what happened to the shah of Iran: 1) Sudden surge in oil prices. 2) Delusions of grandeur. 3) Sudden corrugation of oil prices. 4) Dramatic downfall. 5) You’re toast.)
Under Ahmadinejad, Iran’s mullahs own gone in continuance a family subsidy binge — using oil money to cushion the prices of food, gasoline, mortgages and to create jobs — to buy not upon the Iranian the vulgar. But the one thing Ahmadinejad couldn’t buy was real relating to housekeeping growth. Iran today has 30 percent swelling, 11 percent unemployment and huge underemployment with thousands of young college grads, engineers and architects selling pizzas and driving taxis. And very lately with oil prices falling, Iran — just like the Soviet Union — is going to have to contest back spending over the board. Fasten your seat belts.
The U.N. has imposed three rounds of sanctions against Iran since Ahmadinejad took office in 2005 because of Iran’s refusal to hold uranium enrichment. But high oil prices minimized those sanctions; collapsing oil prices will now augment those sanctions. If prices stay low, there is a good chance Iran will be open to negotiating over its nuclear program with the nearest U.S. president.
That is a good thing on this account that Iran also funds Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and the anti-U.S. Shiites in Iraq. If America wants to get out of Iraq and leave behind a befitting outcome, in addition smash the deadlocks in Lebanon and Israel-Palestine, it necessarily to end the Cold War through Iran. Possible? I dress in’t know, but the collapse of oil prices should give us a shot.
But let’s use our leverage smartly and not exaggerate Iran’session vividness. Just as I believe that we should drop the reward for the capture of Osama bin Laden — from $50 the great body of the people to one penny, plus an autographed picture of Dick Cheney — we need to deflate the Iranian mullahs as well. Let them race us.
Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, compares it to bargaining for a Persian carpet in Tehran. “When you go inside the carpet workshop, the first thing you are supposed to do is feign disinterest,” he explains. “The last thing you straits to suggest is ‘We are not leaving without that carpet.’ ‘Well,’ the dealer will say, ‘if you feel so forcibly about it … ‘ “
The other lesson from the carpet bazaar, says Sadjadpour, “is that there is in no degree a price tag on a single one carpet. The dealer is not looking for a fixed price, excepting the highest price he can get — and the Iran price is constantly fluctuating depending on the price of oil.” Let’s now use that to our advantage.
Barack Hussein Obama would present another challenge for Iran’sitting mullahs. Their whole rationale for being is that they are resisting a hegemonic American power that wants to keep everyone from a high to a low position. Suddenly, next week, Iranians may look up and see that the land their leaders demand “The Great Satan” has just elected “a guy whose middle name is the central shape in Shiite Islam — Hussein — and whose last name — Obama — when transliterated into Farsi, means ‘He is with us,’ ” said Sadjadpour.
Iran is ripe for deflating. Its power was inflated by the value of oil and the popularity of its leader, who was cheered simply for he was not averse to poke America with a stick. But as a real nation-building adventure, the Islamic Revolution in Iran has been an abject botch.
“When you demand in one’s teens Arabs what one. leaders in the region they most admire,” said Sadjadpour, they will usually answer the leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.
“When you interrogate them where in the Middle East would you most same to live,” he added, “the answer is usually socially open places like Dubai or Beirut. The Islamic Republic of Iran is never in the top 10.”
Thomas L. Friedman is a regular columnist for The New York Times.