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MIAMI — Sen. John McCain woke Thursday morning to what has become a common salute in these tough last weeks of his campaign. A raft of polls showing him well in the rear. Early post-mortems on his candidacy. Even Republicans oratory of him in the past tense.

But is it really over?

As McCain enters this closing stretch, his aides — as well for the reason that some outer Republicans and equal a small in number Democrats — argue he still has a viable path to victory.

“The McCain campaign is roughly in the position where Vice President Gore was running against President Bush person week before the election of 2000,” said Steve Schmidt, McCain’s chief expert manaeuvrer. “We have field to make up, but we be persuaded we can make it up.”

Even the most hale of the McCain supporters acknowledge it won’t be easy, and there are a considerable number of Republicans who say, off the record, the 2008 cake is baked.

McCain’s hopes of triumph may now rest on events over what one. he has no control. Here are what McCain’s advisers are vigilance optimistically (and Obama’s are watching warily) as the contest enters its conclusive days.

States

McCain’s advisers said the key to victory is reeling back those Republican states whither Obama has them on the run: Florida, where McCain spent Thursday; Ohio; Indiana; Missouri; North Carolina; and Virginia. If he be possible to execute on to all those states, as well for the reason that others that are reliably red, he would put into his column 260 of the 270 electoral votes essential to gain over. McCain’s advisers said they would look for the extra electoral votes they lack either by taking Pennsylvania from the Democrats, or putting together some combination of New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire.

McCain’s advisers are most concerned about Virginia. On the other side of the coin, they say if he wins or comes close in Pennsylvania, he probably will win in Ohio and Florida. Aides to McCain and Obama agree McCain remains very much in the stratagem in Ohio and Florida. Not easy, but not impossible either.

Issues

Two issues have turned up in the latest days, courtesy of some untimely remarks by Obama and his running mate, Sen. Joseph Biden.

The first was Obama’s response to the plumber in Ohio who asked about his proposal to increase income-tax rates forward households making more than $250,000 a year, in which Obama cited a want to “spread the wealth.” McCain seized on it to reprise the “he-will-raise-your-taxes” pass censure on. see under that has historically had reverberation in states like Florida, Iowa and New Hampshire. “We believe we have traction with the tax issue,” related Charlie Black, a senior adviser to McCain.