GE’s Chance to Reassure Investors
CEO Immelt is in the state pressure to improve on the Q1 earnings flop, being of the kind which GE says it plans to spin off its entire consumer and industrial unit
General Electric CEO Jeffrey Immelt. Andreas Solaro/AFP/Getty Images
by Jena McGregor
General Electric’s (GE) announcement of its second-quarter proceeds results on the morning of July 11 is shaping up to be one of the most numerous closely watched events on Wall Street this summer.
Partly that’s because benefit results from the conglomerate, which counts everything from elastic fluid turbines to TV sitcoms in the midst of its result associate, have long been a bellwether because the health of the overall U.S. economy. And we all know how shaky that is in this age. In addition, GE’s July 10 announcement that it plans to pursue spinning off its entire GE Consumer & Industrial section will have investors listening closely for CEO Jeffrey Immelt’s disputation of the move. Divesting the consumer & pertaining businesses, which includes GE’s iconic lighting business and the previously announced sale of its appliances unit (BusinessWeek.com, 5/16/08), has long been expected by investors, but the focus on a spin-off should flourish up the process. "There’s an urgency to declutter and give a lift people understand the evolution of what GE is going to be," says Sterne Agee analyst Nicholas Heymann.
But what’s really training Wall Street’s eyes on the Fairfield (Conn.)-based set’s announcement is GE’s unprecedented first-quarter earnings forego. Three months ago, GE shocked the Street by announcing earnings per share (BusinessWeek.com, 4/11/08) that were 7¢ below estimates, prompting its stock price to tumble stingily 13% in one light of day.
Making matters worse, the historic fail came candid weeks after GE CEO Jeffrey Immelt issued a presumptuous outlook. It was a in the greatest degree uncharacteristic jolt for investors who were accustomed to GE’s consistent road record of junction its numbers.
Investor "Fear Factor"Since that date, the pressures on Immelt have only mounted. GE’s stock compensation has fallen another 14% since Apr. 11. Six analysts have downgraded the stock, with a few calling for a breakup of the company that goes far beyond Immelt’s rife efforts to restructure the portfolio.
Immelt’s predecessor (and BusinessWeek columnist) Jack Welch equal went on CNBC on Apr. 16, saying Immelt had a "credibility issue" and was "getting his ass kicked." Welch later said his comments were interpreted incorrectly (BusinessWeek, 4/17/08), yet that did little to vary the fact of Immelt’s bruised credibility on the Street.
The first track to restoring that credibility, of course, will bring forth being meeting his second-quarter earnings forecast, which most analysts believe the company will conclude. GE attributed its first-quarter miss primarily to the extraordinary credit-market turmoil following the Bear Stearns debacle, which prevented it from closing asset sales. Following the miss, GE revised its full-year earnings expectations downward and set second-quarter guidance at 53¢ to 55¢ per apportion, on $45 billion in revenues.
That’s about flat to weakly higher than the second quarter of last year. Analysts are expecting earnings per share of 54¢, according to Thomson Financial. Sterne Agee analyst Heymann believes it’s very likely GE won’t turn in some negative surprises, and feels assured by the agency of GE Capital’s relatively low exposure to "opaque, hard-to-value" securities that could prompt more distant writedowns.
But investors weary of the trunk’s long-term malaise will exist watching for more than just whether GE meets its numbers. To extract the "fear factor" that has been weighing down the stock, says Heymann, investors decision be looking for more transparency in the financial-services portfolio and more clarity on how much of GE’s earnings per share comes from operations vs. asset sales.
Health-Care Business Is KeyThey’ll furthermore exist expecting an update on the status of two in suspense divestitures. GE is in the process of trying to take a bribe for its private-label credit-card dealing and its iconic appliances unit, a sale it announced in May (BusinessWeek.com, 5/16/08). With the housing industry decimated and consumer finances on the rocks, some investors have questioned the timing of these moves.
"Maybe they could have done that sooner," says Eric Schoenstein, co-portfolio manager of the Jensen Portfolio, granting he admits hindsight is always helpful. "But at least by acquisition rid of [private-label credit cards], you catch [some] consumer venture off the table."
Others will be watching for how well GE’s health-care business fares. In the first quarter, profits. for the unit were down 17%, on flat revenues. Lower reimbursements according to medical equipment insincere demand and contributed to the weakness. Because Immelt ran this business before suitable CEO, and has positioned it like part of his strategy of meeting long-term demographic trends, investors are especially mindful of its performance.
"If [hale condition care] starts to fail to meet your objectives," says Jim Hardesty, president of Baltimore-based Hardesty Capital Management, which owns GE shares, "where is everything else going to wind up?"
